Moody's Analytics, a unit of Moody’s Corporation, has forecast Vietnam, together with China and Hong Kong (China), would see the fastest growth in 2021, thus making the Asia-Pacific region lead the global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Illustrative image (Source: VNA) – Moody's Analytics, a unit of Moody’s Corporation,
has forecast Vietnam, together with China and Hong Kong (China), would see the
fastest growth in 2021, thus making the Asia-Pacific region lead the global
recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
"The Asia Pacific economy has done the best job of
containing COVID-19 and it is rebounding with the global recovery of industrial
production and global trade. Further, it enjoys a level of fiscal support in
many countries that will keep a floor under the economy and preserve
enterprises and household financial conditions so that they are able to
contribute to economic recovery," said Moody's Analytics chief Asia-Pacific
economist, Steve Cochrane.
However, while the Moody's Analytics baseline economic
outlook expects growth across the entire Asia-Pacific region in 2021, economic
recovery in the region will not be fully complete until international travel
and tourism flourish once again.
The true impact is when growth rates are combined with the
depth of each country's downturn, which determines when each country's GDP
returns to a new peak level.
China has already achieved this in the second quarter as it rebounded
quickly from its recession that started in early January. Taiwan and Vietnam
will be at new peaks by the time Q4 of 2020 comes to an end, said Moody's
Analytics.
On the other end of the spectrum, Japan, the Philippines and
India will not surmount new peaks until the second half of 2022. Japan's slow
rate of growth combined with a longer recession that began in the fourth
quarter of 2019 will delay its shift back into economic expansion. India and
the Philippines were the two hardest hit by the economic impacts of the
pandemic and have the deepest holes to climb out of./.